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Relative Calm Ahead Flood of Central Bank Policy Annc's

US TSYS

Tsys holding mostly weaker after the bell (Dec Ultra-Bond outperforming), Inside session range after Tsy yields tapped multi-year highs: 2s at 3.9655% high; 5s at 3.7124%; 10s at 3.5158% high; 30Y at 3.5679%).

  • Relative calm before a flood of central bank rate anncs lead by the FOMC (Wed) and BoE (Thu), followed by Riksbank, Canada, China on Tue; Boj, SNB, Norges on Thu. Light volumes (TYZ2 <850k w/ Japan out for one day holiday (Respect for the aged) and London banks closed for the Queen's funeral.
  • No obvious headline or block driver as futures bounced off morning lows, long end outperforming as curves extended inversion (2s10s currently -4.008 at -46.407 vs. -48.142 low; 5s30s -6.037 at -18.340 vs. -19.977 low).
  • Plausible driver: carry-over curve flattening/steepener unwinds from deep pocket accts firm up opinion on forward policy/recession chances ahead Wednesday's FOMC (includes Summary of Economic Projections, Fed Chairman Powell news conf 30 minutes after the 1400ET annc); 75bp hike widely anticipated, option trades seeing unwind of 100bps hike bets, while debate over 50-75bps moves in Nov and Dec meetings continues.
  • Current cross-asset levels: Stocks gaining late - modest relief rally as bets on 100bp hike this Wed receded, SPX extending session highs w/ESZ2 at 3916.25 (+26.25), Crude mildly higher - well off lows (WTI +0.30 at 85.41 vs. 82.15 low), Gold weaker (1673.21 -1.85).
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 7.7bps at 3.9443%, 5-Yr is up 5.7bps at 3.6876%, 10-Yr is up 3.5bps at 3.4846%, and 30-Yr is down 1bps at 3.5032%.

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