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Relatively Modest Market Reaction To A Mostly Dovish Jobs Report [1/2]

US DATA
  • Nonfarm payrolls beat expectations in June with 206k (cons 190k) but that’s essentially where the stronger aspects of the report end.
  • The heavy two-month downward revision of -111k (split equally over April and May) left a three-month average of 177k in June after 212k in May (vs 249k pre-revisions).
  • With the caveat that there are of course plenty of revisions still to come, that leaves the latest three-month average at its lowest since Jan’21 and below the recently touted breakeven pace of ~200k following strong immigration.
  • Further, private payrolls painted a weaker picture at 136k (-24k miss) after a -86k two-month revision and with renewed reliance on cyclically insensitive categories.
  • As an aside and to take with a pinch of salt as it can be noisy, the 49k decline in temporary help services was technically the largest decline since Apr’21.
  • AHE growth was very close to consensus at 0.29% M/M (cons 0.3) but we feel still somewhat notable as a few analysts had looked for 0.4% on the back of a calendar shift that would reverse in July.
[continues in part two]
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