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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
[continuing from part one]
- In the household survey, the unemployment rate surprised higher at 4.05% in June (cons 4.0 with some skew to a 3.9 print) on a stronger rebound in labor supply.
- The 4.1 rounding on screens exaggerates the increase, but it's another 0.1pp increase from 3.96% in May and 3.86% in April. It’s above the 4.0% the median FOMC participant sees for 4Q24 and a mild step closer to the 4.2% for 4Q25. Using unrounded data, it leaves a SAHM rule at 0.40 from 0.35 in May.
- One rare non-dovish aspect of the report was the U6 underemployment rate holding at 7.4% for its third month running as those working part-time for economic reasons fell 199k on the month.
- All told, it’s a dovish report across the board in our view but the market reaction has been limited. The pre-holiday run of softer-than-expected data saw fresh net longs set in U.S. rates, seemingly limiting the initial market response. Meanwhile, the post-July 4 timing of the release means that markets were subjected to reduced liquidity.
- For instance, Fed Funds show September FOMC pricing essentially unchanged from Wednesday’s close (almost 20bp of cuts, or OIS showing 18.5bps). There is of course a huge amount of data to come before then though, including CPI next week plus two additional NFP reports.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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