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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
The main opposition centre-left Labour party held onto the constituency of Batley and Spen in the 1 July by-election in a result that will provide some relief for embattled party leader Sir Keir Starmer.
- Labour held the seat with a majority of 323 votes, down from 3,525 in the 2019 general election. The party won 35.2% of the vote (down 7.4% from 2019) to the Conservatives' 34.4% (down 1.6%). In third place came the Workers' Party of Britain candidate George Galloway, a former Labour MP and now perennial far-left pro-Palestine candidate in by-elections held in constituencies with large Muslim populations.
Chart 1. Batley and Spen Constituency Results and Pre-By-Election Poll, %
Source: Kirkless Council, Survation, MNI
- The centre-right Conservatives coming in second place is being painted as something of a disappointment for the party given the high expectations for the party in seats in northern England following the Hartlepool by-election in May where PM Boris Johnson's party were able to overturn a Labour majority. The party was unable to take advantage of the decline in support for Labour, aided by the strong result for Galloway, with a lethargic ground campaign and the ongoing scandal over former Health Secretary Matt Hancock's private life both being touted as reasons for Conservative underperformance.
- Labour leader Starmer has been under significant pressure in recent months dealing with the loss of Hartlepool, underperformance in the May English council elections, poor opinion polling numbers, and a general perception among some in the Labour party that he is not robust enough in countering the gov't. Speculation around a leadership challenge had swirled ahead of the by-election, but the narrow win should dampen said speculation over the short-to-medium term.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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