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Relief Rally, Nothing In Minutes That Hasn't Already Been Said

US TSYS
Risk-on gained traction after some initial two-way trade -- Tsys holding narrow range with 2s and 10s outperforming while stocks posted new session highs -- relieved after the minutes showed no discussion of larger rate hikes.
  • "A restrictive policy stance may well become appropriate depending on the evolving economic outlook and the risks to the outlook," the minutes said, highlighting that officials saw upside risk to inflation.
  • Several participants also noted the potential for "unanticipated effects on financial market conditions" related to the asset-runoff process.
  • After some initial two-way trade, SPX eminis extended session highs after the FI close, ESM2 climbed to 3997.25 high.
  • Earlier, Tsy futures holding modest gains in 2s-10s, after $48B 5Y note auction (91282CET4) tails slightly: 2.736% high yield vs. 2.732% WI; 2.44x bid-to-cover vs. 2.41x last month.
  • Heavy volumes again as Jun/Sep roll neared 75% completion, both FVM and TYM traded over 3M contracts after the bell more than half of which tied to rolling to Sep that takes lead position on May 31.
  • Thursday focus: Wkly Claims (215k vs. 218k prior), GDP (8.0%), PCE (2.8%), and $42B 7Y Tsy note sale. Fed speak add: SF Fed Daly interview on CNBC's "The Exchange" at 1300ET.
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