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Remain Close To Intraday Lows Following Mixed US UoM Release

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EGBs remain under pressure following a mixed University of Michigan report (higher inflation expectations & lower confidence metrics) from the US.

  • Stronger-than-expected Canadian jobs data and some block sales in Tsy futures had previously weighed on core global FI markets.
  • Bund futures trade to fresh session lows at 130.78.
  • The German cash curve now bear flattens on the day.
  • Year-end ECB implied rates have risen in conjunction with the sell-off, with 67bps of cuts now priced into OIS through 2024 (vs 70bps this morning).
  • Our policy team’s latest sources piece outlined the importance of Fed policy in the ECB’s rate path beyond June, with preferences for caution evidence amongst the Governing Council.
  • Before that, the ECB’s April meeting accounts brought few surprises, supporting a rate cut in June and data dependency thereafter. Those themes have dominated ECB-speak in recent weeks.
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EGBs remain under pressure following a mixed University of Michigan report (higher inflation expectations & lower confidence metrics) from the US.

  • Stronger-than-expected Canadian jobs data and some block sales in Tsy futures had previously weighed on core global FI markets.
  • Bund futures trade to fresh session lows at 130.78.
  • The German cash curve now bear flattens on the day.
  • Year-end ECB implied rates have risen in conjunction with the sell-off, with 67bps of cuts now priced into OIS through 2024 (vs 70bps this morning).
  • Our policy team’s latest sources piece outlined the importance of Fed policy in the ECB’s rate path beyond June, with preferences for caution evidence amongst the Governing Council.
  • Before that, the ECB’s April meeting accounts brought few surprises, supporting a rate cut in June and data dependency thereafter. Those themes have dominated ECB-speak in recent weeks.