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Remain Rangebound Following UK/US Events

EGBS

Bunds remain within today's range, seeing a limited reaction to the UK budget/Gilt remit announcement or headlines from the US (re. Powell's semi-annual testimony speech summary, ADP employment change).

  • Bunds are -13 ticks at 133.16, comfortably within well-established technical parameters.
  • Periphery spreads to Bunds are holding at the day's tightest levels, with the 10-year BTP/Bund spread -3.9bps at 135.1bps at typing.
  • ECB-dated OIS continue to price around 94bps of cuts through the remainder of '24, ahead of tomorrow's decision.

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Mar-243.904-0.7
Apr-243.865-4.6
Jun-243.678-23.3
Jul-243.523-38.8
Sep-243.311-60.1
Oct-243.145-76.6
Dec-242.971-94.0
Jan-252.834-107.7
Source: MNI/Bloomberg

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