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Remain Under Pressure; Peripheries Mixed

EGBS

Core/semi-core EGBs remain under pressure, as this morning's ECB speakers stuck close to their usual stances.

  • ECB's Schnabel noted again that the "last mile" of disinflation may be the hardest, but did note that the peak tightening impact from past hikes may be over.
  • Elsewhere, Nagel and Holzmann remained on the hawkish end, with the former stressing the importance of Q2 data for rate cut decisions (most of the Governing council have been focused on the Q1 figures thus far).
  • The German IFO was pretty much in line, while the ECB's 1-year ahead expectations rose a touch to 3.3% (3-year ahead remained at 2.5%).
  • Bunds are -43 ticks at 132.15, with the first support still at 131.73 (1.0% 10-dma envelope). OAT and BTP futures are also around 40 ticks lower.
  • The German and French curves have bear flattened, while periphery spreads to Bunds are mixed. The 10-year BTP/Bund spread is +1.2bps wider at 148.7bps, roughly in the middle of this week's range.
  • A second appearance from ECB's Schnabel at 1300GMT/1400CET highlights the remainder of today's regional docket.

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