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Remit expected to be revised higher after the public finance data

GILTS
  • The DMO typically revises its remit when the CGNCR figure is finalised for the prior fiscal year and to take into account any over/underfunding to carry forward from the previous fiscal year.
  • The fiscal data is due for release by the ONS at 7:00BST and last year the DMO announced its updated remit at 7:30BST.
  • The OBR’s March forecast saw CGNCR for the FY23/24 at GBP149.2bln. Given the YTD February overshoot, it is likely that this will underestimates borrowing for the fiscal year.
  • There was a small overfund through the gilt market of GBP1.8bln (with GBP239.1bln raised versus GBP237.3bln planned) and some possibly overfunding through NS&I (number unknown).
  • However, we have seen estimates range from GBP6-13bln for an upward revision to the gilt remit this week (with the higher borrowing from CGNCR more than offsetting the overfunding of FY23/24).
  • A smaller increase in the remit could be contained to the small and medium buckets (possibly one more auction for each), while a larger increase is likely to be a bit more distributed across the curve and possibly via bills, too.
  • We would be surprised if there were more than two auctions added to any maturity bucket, however.
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