Free Trial

Remit expected to be revised higher tomorrow

GILTS
  • The DMO typically revises its remit when the CGNCR figure is finalised for the prior fiscal year and to take into account any over/underfunding to carry forward from the previous fiscal year.
  • The fiscal data was released by the ONS at 7:00BST and last year the DMO announced its updated remit at 7:30BST.
  • The OBR’s March forecast saw CGNCR for the FY23/24 at GBP149.2bln. Given the YTD February overshoot, it is likely that this will underestimates borrowing for the fiscal year.
  • There was a small overfund through the gilt market of GBP1.8bln (with GBP239.1bln raised versus GBP237.3bln planned) and some possibly overfunding through NS&I (number unknown).
  • However, we have seen estimates range from GBP6-13bln for an upward revision to the gilt remit this week (with the higher borrowing from CGNCR more than offsetting the overfunding of FY23/24).
  • A smaller increase in the remit could be contained to the small and medium buckets (possibly one more auction for each), while a larger increase is likely to be a bit more distributed across the curve and possibly via bills, too.
  • We would be surprised if there were more than two auctions added to any maturity bucket, however.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.