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Removing some inversion

STIR FUTURES
  • There have been some interesting moves in STIR futures markets today as we have seen the front-end of the strip move higher (Whites and Reds are higher while some ER/ED Greens are also higher). Blues are universally lower across the Eurodollar, Euribor and SONIA strips (by up to 6 ticks).
  • These moves seem consistent with the market pricing in a slightly less steep hiking cycle (possibly helped by oil and gas prices moving lower so far today). The pivot point is seen around the terminal rate with markets then pricing in less inversion of the strips. This suggests the market is pricing in a smaller probability of a policy mistake, and a higher probability that higher rates will stay to some extent into the future.

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