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Renewed COP Weakness In Focus, Petro Disapproval Rises

COLOMBIA
  • USDCOP rose the best part of two percent on Monday as risk off reverberations from China weighed on Latin American currencies. There was nothing idiosyncratic behind the COP underperformance with analysts noting the stretched positioning for the likes of COP and MXN exacerbating the unwind.
  • Citi noted their traders have been seeing outflows in both NDF and cash markets since Friday, with both RM and HFs cutting their long COP exposure while corporate clients are generally RHS given month end. Strong oil prices and carry have been supporting COP as of late and now that's reversing, COP is catching up with peers.
  • Itaú pointed out that a Datexco poll showed that Petro’s approval rating remained at 30% during the third week of September, stable from the mid-September survey. The disapproval rate rose to 63%, the highest point since Petro assumed the presidency. A weakened government coalition will likely contain the extent of planned structural reforms ahead.
  • Business sentiment for August is expected to be released on Tuesday with the docket remaining light before Friday’s BanRep decision. Itaú noted that with the economy expected to slow ahead as interest rates remain high and global financial conditions tight, business confidence appears unlikely to improve.
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