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Renewed USD Strength Amid Geopolitical Tensions Leaves EM Equities Vulnerable

EMERGING MARKETS
  • Demand for the greenback has been strong this month driven by the renewed geopolitical tensions with Europe preparing more sanctions against Russia.
  • The DXY index broke above the psychological 100 level this week after breaking above the 99.7290 level last week, which corresponds to the 76.4% Fibo retracement of the 89.21 – 102.98 range (2020/2021 high low).
  • EM equities (MXEF index) have been trending lower in the past week after finding resistance at their 50DMA earlier this month; the index is approaching its 1,100 support, which corresponds to the 50% retracement of the 751.80 – 1,449.40 range.
  • A break below that level would open the door for a move down to 1,018.25 (61.8% Fibo). ·
  • Part of the downtrend in EM equities has been driven by the fall in Chinese stocks, which account for 30 percent of the index.
  • Using a P/B z-score approach, we saw that China equities are now the ‘cheapest’ EM equity markets (excluding Russia from ranking as P/B value is 0) as zero-Covid policy continues to weigh on the real economy and domestic risky assets.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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