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Free AccessMNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11
REPEAT: MNI: 5 THINGS: BOJ Sakurai: Watch Costs of Easy Policy
MAEBASHI, Japan (MNI) - Bank of Japan board member Makoto Sakurai said
Thursday that the BOJ must not aim to achieve its 2% inflation target at any
cost, calling for a close watch on the side-effects of prolonged large-scale
monetary easing including overheating economic and financial conditions.
At its latest policy meeting on Apr. 26-27, the BOJ board decided in an
8-to-1 vote to maintain its cautiously stimulative monetary easing stance under
the yield curve control framework while dropping its estimate on when it can
achieve the increasingly evasive 2% inflation target.
The key points from Sakurai's news conference in the afternoon:
-- When the BOJ conducts monetary policy, it must carefully watch the
side-effects of the aggressive easing that it began in April 2013. The
side-effects are not yet serious enough to prompt the BOJ to reduce the scale of
easing.
-- For now, the BOJ must maintain the easy policy to support the modest
economic recovery with a positive output gap. Therefore, it is premature to
consider adjusting the easing stance.
-- "Looking ahead, the cumulative effects of large-scale easing will
increase and we may face the situation in which we must examine the side-effects
of the easy policy."
-- Sakurai didn't comment directly on whether the BOJ may reduce the scale
of its easing program before it achieves the 2% price target. He simply replied
that the BOJ must carefully watch the net effects of the easy policy.
The key points of Sakurai's speech to business leaders in Maebashi City,
north of Tokyo, in the morning:
-- The BOJ has been trying to anchor inflation around 2% at the earliest
possible time but this doesn't mean that the bank must achieve the target at any
expense.
-- The BOJ needs to maintain the accommodative financial environment based
on the current policy framework but the bank must also pay attention to the risk
that prolonged aggressive easing may destabilize the financial system, which in
turn could restrict economic activity.
-- The BOJ should maintain a "moderately tight supply-demand balance" for
the longest possible period to keep upward pressure on inflation but at the same
time, the BOJ must keep a close eye on a lopsided supply-demand balance, which
would cause a big swing in the economy.
-- The stimulative effects of easing under the yield curve control policy
framework will increase over time as longer-term inflation expectations rise and
economic growth expands. At the same time, the move to boost supply amid labor
shortages and aging production facilities will raise the economy's growth
potential and push up prices in the longer term, although it is putting a lid on
growth and prices in the short term. Considering those two factors, the BOJ must
conduct "appropriate" monetary policy to prevent supply-demand conditions from
losing a moderately tight balance.
-- Sakurai said it was inevitable for the board to decide to stop
publishing the estimated timeframe of hitting the 2% price target at its April
meeting because the BOJ was facing various uncertainties and market participants
had too much focus on the estimated timing as an indicator of the future course
of monetary policy. Nonetheless, the BOJ needs to carefully explain the
mechanism for a price increase and its risks in order to deepen communication
with the markets.
--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-4670-5309; email: max.sato@marketnews.com
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.