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REPEAT:MNI ANALYSIS:Fed Mester:Tariffs Pose 'Risk' to Outlook

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:24 GMT Mar 26/17:24 EST Mar 26
--Impact Depends on How Other Countries React
--No Immediate Effect on Outlook
By Jean Yung
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta
Mester echoed Chair Jay Powell on Monday when she commented that new and planned
trade tariffs out of the Trump administration pose a "risk" to -- but has not
altered -- her economic outlook. 
     The tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and threats of planned measures
on certain goods imported from China, as well as the ongoing renegotiations of
the North American Free Trade Agreement "add uncertainty to the trade picture"
which may not be quickly resolved, she said. 
     "While I see them as a risk to the forecast, at this point they have not
led me to change my outlook for the overall economy," she told an audience at
Princeton University. 
     Analysts say the steel and aluminum tariffs would have a miniscule impact
on GDP growth but may stoke inflationary pressures at a time when the economy is
hot and firms are already seeing rising costs. 
     But a key area of uncertainty that Mester flagged Monday is how other
countries will react to U.S. tariffs, including whether they impose their own
tariffs in response. Retaliation via tariffs on U.S. exports could have the
opposite effect on inflation and negatively affect domestic business sentiment. 
     Given that Fed policymakers including Mester, a voter on rates this year,
are currently waiting for inflation to move back to goal before possibly
speeding up the pace of planned hikes, her remarks signal officials will
continue to monitor development carefully. 
     "If the upside risks to growth come to pass, we may need to steepen the
path a bit; if inflation surprises on the downside, we may need to go a bit
slower," Mester said Monday. 
     Powell last week said the tariffs issue came up at the March Federal Open
Market Committee meeting and said "there's no thought that changes in trade
policy should have any effect on the current outlook."
     However, it's become a "concern going forward" for business leaders, he
said. 
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: jean.yung@marketnews.com
MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 | jean.yung@marketnews.com
MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 | jean.yung@marketnews.com

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