REPEAT: MNI: ANALYSTS: Japan Q4 GDP To Post Modest Growth

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 06:34 GMT Feb 2/01:34 EST Feb 2

     TOKYO (MNI) - Japan's gross domestic product for the October-December

quarter is expected by economists to post a modest 0.2% rise on quarter, or an

annualized 0.9%, led by continued solid capital investment and a rebound in

consumer spending.

     The median forecast for Q4 GDP is based on projections by 10 economists

which ranged from -0.0% to +0.3% on quarter, or an annualized -0.2% to +1.0%.

     The Cabinet Office will release preliminary GDP data for the fourth quarter

of 2017 at 0850 JST on Wednesday, Feb. 14 (2350 GMT on Feb. 13).

     The expected expansion in Q4 would be the eighth consecutive quarterly gain

following the 0.6% growth on quarter, or an annualized +2.5%, in July-September,

when strong capital investment and net exports offset a slump in consumption.

     In Q4, business investment appears to have continued expanding while

private consumption is forecast to have rebounded after shrinking on bad

weather.

     Economists expect capital investment to have risen 1.1% on quarter for the

fourth straight rise following +1.1% in Q3, with their forecasts ranging from

+0.3% to +1.9%.

     The median forecast for private consumption, which accounts for about 60%

of GDP, is +0.4% on quarter in Q4 (ranging from -0.1% to +0.7%), which would be

the first rise in two quarters after falling 0.5% in Q3.

     The BOJ's supply-side Consumption Activity Index rose a real 0.5% on a

seasonally adjusted basis for November following a 0.5% rise in October.

     The Cabinet Office's Private Consumption Integrated Estimates index, which

is based on both supply- and demand-side data, posted the second straight

month-on-month rise in November, up a sharp 1.1%, after rising 0.2% in October

and falling 0.5% in September.

     Net exports of goods and services -- exports minus imports -- are forecast

by economists to have pushed down the total domestic output by 0.1 percentage

point (forecasts ranged from -0.2 to +0.2 point). It would be the first negative

contribution in two quarters after adding 0.5 percentage point to the Q3 GDP

growth.

     In Q4, the real export index calculated by the Bank of Japan rose 2.4% on

quarter, the second consecutive rise after +1.9% in Q3. The real import index

rose at a faster pace of 2.6% in Q4 after falling 1.5% in Q3.

     Public investment is also forecast to have contracted by 1.0% on quarter in

Q4 after slumping 2.4% in Q3.

     Private-sector inventories are projected to have pushed down the Q4 GDP by

0.1 percentage point after boosting the Q3 growth by 0.4 percentage point.

     Looking ahead, economists expect the moderate economic recovery to continue

in the January-March quarter, backed by solid private consumption and capital

investment.

--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-4670-5309; email: max.sato@marketnews.com