REPEAT:MNI Australia Housing Fall Orderly But Outlook Gloomy

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 00:03 GMT Sep 3/20:03 EST Sep 2

By Sophia Rodrigues

     SYDNEY (MNI) - Australian national dwelling values dropped for the eleventh

straight month in August, according to data published by CoreLogic Monday. Below

are the main observations we made from the data that might have implications for

the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy:

     --The decline in dwelling values continued in August and while the pace

slowed versus July, the y/y fall accelerated to -2.0% from -1.6% in July. The

fall in housing prices has been orderly so far but the outlook is uncertain and

is a key risk for the Reserve Bank of Australia's guidance for the next move in

the cash rate to be up.

     --One comforting factor for the RBA is that the decline so far is heavily

concentrated across the premium sector of the market which has fallen 5.4% over

the past 12 months. The broad middle is down 0.5% while the most inexpensive

quartile has risen 0.6%. The impact on household consumption stemming from such

a pattern is expected to be limited compared with a fall in the lower end of the

market where households are expected to be more vulnerable to fall.

     --Rental markets remain subdued, with rise in rents slower than the

inflation, and is one of the key headwinds for the inflation outlook. In August,

national rents were 1.5% higher on an annual basis, slower than 1.6% rise seen

in July. Slowing rents coupled with falling house prices, has boosted rental

yields which was up 3.73% compared with a record low of 3.61% in late 2017.

Still this was 54 basis points lower than the decade average of 4.27%.

     --National dwelling values fell 0.3% m/m in August, taking the total fall

since September last year to -2.2%. Sydney was the weakest capital city leading

the decline in prices in initial months but Melbourne has now overtaken with

dwelling values falling 2.0% on a rolling quarterly basis -- the weakest since

January 2012. 

     --Hobart is now showing signs of weakness with 0.1% m/m fall, after a flat

July. Annual pace of gain in Hobart is still in double digits with 10.7% rise

but this could start slowing given the rolling quarterly gain was just 0.1%.

Brisbane prices also fell in August, down 0.2% after rising 0.1% in July. Perth

has now officially reversed the decline seen in the early part of this year,

down 0.6% m/m in August and 2.1% y/y.

     --Looking ahead, headwinds for the housing market include the out-of-cycle

rise in mortgage rates announced by Westpac last week, tight credit conditions,

and uncertainty over tax policy. According to CoreLogic, the spring season is

likely to challenging due to higher supply. Advertised stock levels for the

combined capital cities are already up 7.6% compared with the same time last

year even though there has been a 5.7% reduction in fresh stock added to the

market. This is because homes are taking longer to sell and fewer of them are

getting sold at auctions.

--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com