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Free AccessMNI BRIEF: Beijing To Protect Firms From U.S. Bill - MOFCOM
MNI BRIEF: SNB Cuts Policy Rate By 50 BP To 0.5%
MNI EUROPEAN MARKETS ANALYSIS: ECB Expected To Cut Rates Later
REPEAT: MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Feb Core PCE Prices +1.6% Y/Y>
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 13:30 GMT Mar 29
--Personal Income Up 0.4%; PCE Up 0.2%; Core PCE Prices +0.2% M/M
--Initial Jobless Claims Fall To 215,000; Annual Revisions Included
By Kevin Kastner, Sara Haire, and Holly Stokes
WASHINGTON (MNI) - Personal income rose 0.4% in February, while
nominal PCE was up 0.2% and the core PCE price index rose 0.2% in the
month and 1.6% year/year, all as expected, data released by the Bureau
of Economic Analysis Thursday morning showed.
The core price index's 1.6% year/year rise in February was an
uptick from the 1.5% rates posted in the previous four months, but was
still significantly below the 12-month rates seen in early 2017 and the
Fed's 2.0% target. The current month's rate is the highest since April.
Personal income was supported by another solid gain in wages and
salaries, as well as proprietors' income and rental income, and a small
gain in income on assets.
The saving rate rose to 3.4% in February from 3.2% in January and
2.4% in December, but the rate was still weak compared to a year
earlier. Some analysts have suggest that the plunge in the savings rate
over the last year, from a 2017 high of 4.1% in February of that year,
has supported consumption.
Consumers, confident about the economy and job prospects, have
shifted their priorities from saving to spending. However, an MNI
analysis Wednesday suggested that much of that new spending is coming
via credit cards rather than excess cash.
Disposable personal income rose 0.4% in the month. Personal taxes
rose by 0.7% in the month after plunging by 3.2% in January. With the
new tax law enacted, further declines in taxes are possible. Disposable
income rose by 0.4%, same as pre-tax income, while real disposable
income was up 0.2%.
--ENERGY PCE PRICES DOWN
The 0.2% gain in current dollar PCE continues the string of gains.
Spending on durable goods rose 0.2% in the month, but nondurable goods
spending fell 0.2% on a 0.1% decline in energy prices. Services spending
was up 0.3%.
Real PCE were flat in February, as the overall PCE price index
rose 0.2% despite the energy price decline. The overall price index was
up 1.8% year/year, modestly higher than the 1.7% gains in the previous
three months.
After inflation adjustment, durable goods PCE was up 0.6%, compared
with the 0.2% nominal gain. Nondurable goods PCE was down 0.3% compared
with the 0.2% nominal decline. Real services PCE was flat compared with
the 0.3% nominal gain.
The average real PCE level in the first quarter was up only 0.6% at
an annual rate from the fourth quarter average. PCE was up 4.0% in the
fourth quarter GDP report.
--CLAIMS LEVEL LOW SINCE 1973
Also released on Thursday, initial jobless claims fell by 12,000 to
215,000 in the March 24 week, well below the 230,000 level expected
and the lowest level since the January 27, 1973 week.
Annual revision were included with the data. While making little
change to the recent pattern, the revisions did bump up the recent low
210,000 level in the February 24 week to 217,000.
The four-week moving average fell by 500 to 224,500, as that
217,000 level in February 24 week dropped out of the equation. The
average could decline further next week if there is no change to the
headline number as the 330,000 level in the March 3 week drops out.
Continuing claims rose by 35,000 to 1.871 million in the March 17
employment survey week, but was down 51,000 from the 1.922 million level
in the March 13 employment survey week. The data still suggest that
labor markets remain tight and that workers are finding jobs fairly
quickly.
** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
To read the full story
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Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.