REPEAT: MNI: Italy President To Stall Populist Win: Analyst

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 07:28 GMT Feb 20/02:28 EST Feb 20

By Silvia Marchetti

     ROME (MNI) - In order to protect Italy's position on the European stage,

head of state Sergio Mattarella will do all in his power to avoid the rise of a

populist government to power after the March 4 elections, a top political

analyst told MNI.

     "The Italian constitution grants the president the power to formally

appoint a new government which must be solid though. And even though he can't

ignore the number of votes each party wins, he will push to preserve national

unity and guarantee stability," said Sergio Fabbrini, a director at Rome-based

LUISS University.

     Given there will likely be no clear winner after the election, the

president will launch a round of talks to see which parties are willing to join

forces. According to Fabbrini, he will likely focus on pushing for a pro-Europe,

centrist alliance between the Democrats and the centre-right Forza Italia party

of Silvio Berlusconi, seen as the most credible option.

     "A potential Lega/5 Star Movement populist cabinet would be disruptive. It

would destroy market confidence, pushing the spread between German and Italian

bonds up, leading Italy to the verge of a sovereign debt crisis like the one

seen in 2011," warned Fabbrini.

     Both Mattarella and current premier Paolo Gentiloni recently reassured

European and international partners that Italy's pro-EU and anti-populist

direction will not be diverted by a new government.

     --CONSTITUTIONAL GET-OUT

     According to Italy's constitution, the president ensures the 'correct

functioning of institutions' and the respect of all international treaties,

including those binding Italy to Europe. Italy's membership of the European

Union is part of the constitution, so a populist cabinet would somehow be viewed

as 'unconstitutional'.

     "There's no future for Italy outside of Europe, the vote will determine

whether our country will remain on the EU path or deviate from it. Whether we

will contribute to the EU reforms alongside the Paris-Berlin axis or just watch

as impotent outsiders. Mattarella is fully aware of this risk, therefore he will

aim to create a centrist, stabilising government," said Fabbrini.

     Into the election, both Lega and 5 Star have dropped their calls for Italy

to leave the euro euro in an attempt to lure more moderate voters. Both parties

remain highly critical of the EU, pushing for an overhaul of all existing

treaties.

     Back in 2011, when Italy neared a sovereign debt crisis, then president

Giorgio Napolitano played a major role in easing then premier Silvio Berlusconi

from office and finding an alternative governing majority.

     Even if the first ballot fails to produce a governing majority, with the

Democrats and Forza Italia unable to reach any agreement, Fabbrini doesn't think

Mattarella will call for an immediate second ballot.

     But a long period of stalemate would ensue, with further rounds of complex

party talks.

     "The worst case scenario would see a potential paralysis of between 8

months and one year. Gentiloni would keep governing while Mattarella puts a

political outsider in charge of vetting a valid, more reassuring trans-national

government," says Fabbrini.

     --AGAINST ANTI-EUROPEANISM

     Mattarella's priority throughout would be to avoid Italy turning into an

anti-European state.

     "A populist, nationalist victory would empower conservative forces and

transform this country into a southern appendix of the Visegrad Eastern bloc,

siding with Poland and Austria that want 'in' the EU club just for economic

benefits," explained Fabbrini.

     Italy must remain within the Ventotene Group of core, founding member

states that push to further the integration project, he added.

     According to Fabbrini, the March vote is as crucial for Italy as the 1948

referendum when Italians voted in favour of a republic over monarchy, adhering

to NATO and paving way to the EU's foundation.

     "The only salvation is the birth of a pro-EU, government that transcends

party affiliations and is able to be a protagonist on Europe's stage by

contributing to the bloc's reforms," said Fabbrini.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com