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REPEAT:MNI POLICY: BOJ Sees Japan Exports on Uptrend; Watch US

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 11:16 GMT Aug 16/07:16 EST Aug 16
     TOKYO (MNI) - Bank of Japan officials see no need to change their view that
exports are on an uptrend, thanks to solid global growth and despite weak July
real export data.
     The U.S.-China trade dispute may be reducing new orders placed with
Japanese machinery makers for business investment in the U.S., for example, but
two sets of trade data released Thursday showed there had been no serious direct
impact on Japan's exports.
     But the officials are watching whether heightened tensions between the
world's two largest economies will dampen capital investment overseas and lower
demand for capital goods made in Japan.
     --SLOW EXPORT RISE
     The BOJ's real export index rose 0.3% on month in July for the first rise
in three months following -0.5% (revised from -0.6%) in June, but the index fell
1.5%, compared to the average of the April-June quarter,
     In April-June, the real export index rose 0.5% on quarter following +0.5%
in the first quarter.
     The BOJ will release the details of its real trade indexes on Tuesday.
     --CHECKING TEMPORARY FACTORS
     If the weak real export index for July was due to temporary factors, such
as supply constraints caused by heavy rainfall in early July, real exports will
rebound in or after August, the BOJ views.
     Single month weak export data alone is not enough for the BOJ to change its
assessment on external demand as BOJ officials are focused on quarter-on-quarter
changes in exports as well as industrial production to see the underlying trend.
     The BOJ maintains the view that "exports will likely continue their
increasing trend for the time being, as those of capital goods and IT-related
goods -- in which Japan has a comparative advantage -- are likely to be firm
with global production."
     --WATCHING US CAPEX
     Data from the Ministry of Finance released Thursday showed the growth in
Japanese exports slowed further to 3.9% on year in July from +6.7% in June and
+8.1% in May, with auto shipments to the U.S. down, but Asian demand for
Japanese machines and electronics parts remained strong.
     The increase was led by higher shipments of mineral fuels, iron and steel
products as well as semiconductors. But shipments of ships and motor vehicles
fell on year.
     Exports to the U.S. marked the second straight y/y drop while those to the
European Union posted the 18th straight year-on-year rise Exports to Asia and
China showed the fifth straight y/y gains.
     The data also showed that global demand for Japanese capital goods and
chip-making equipment remained solid.
     Shipments of construction machines to the European Union rose 27.4% on year
in July after +26.1% in June. Shipments of chip-making equipment and electronic
parts and devices to the China surged 135.1% on year in July following +79.2% in
June.
     BOJ officials are analyzing whether the drop in shipments of chip-making
equipment to the U.S. (-50.1% on year in July vs. -40.2% in June) has been
caused by weaker capital investment in the U.S.
--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-4670-5309; email: max.sato@marketnews.com

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