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Free AccessREPEAT: MNI POLICY: BOJ Suzuki Warns of Runaway Easing Costs
NAHA, Japan (MNI) - Bank of Japan board member Hitoshi Suzuki on Wednesday
warned that growing side-effects of prolonged large-scale monetary easing would
become too big to control if the central bank didn't keep a close watch on both
the costs and benefits of its policy.
At the same time, he also said the BOJ board's decision in July to allow a
wider trading range for the benchmark long-term interest rate was not aimed at
pushing up the levels of borrowing costs.
The BOJ's policy stance to keep zero to negative interest rates aimed at
guiding low inflation to its 2% target has squeezed profit margins for lenders
and slashed investment returns for pension fund managers.
In a speech to business leaders in Naha, southwestern Japan, Suzuki said,
"As for the conduct of monetary policy, we have to keep a close eye on medium-
to long-term effects and side-effects."
"We must pay a full attention to the risk that it would be difficult to
cope with the situation well or too late to act if the accumulated side-effects
materialize sometime in the future."
Later at a news conference, Suzuki had no comments on when the side-effects
were likely to have a visible impact on the economy and how the BOJ could
mitigate such a negative effect.
"We must keep a close eye on how the side-effects will accumulate with the
passage of time," he said. "Banks have sufficient capital bases and fund
liquidity but the future risks are increasing."
Suzuki, a former commercial banker who joined the nine-member policy board
in July 2017, has voiced concern over the costs of prolonged easing.
--WATCH FINANCIAL SYSTEM
"In addition to the impact (of easy policy) on government bond markets, we
need to pay attention to the impact of prolonged low interest rates on financial
institutions," he said.
Suzuki also said the BOJ must watch how the business conditions of
financial institutions including regional lenders will affect the soundness of
the financial system and financial intermediation.
--NOT RATE HIKE
Suzuki also said that the BOJ's decision at its July 30-31 meeting to allow
the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to move in a wider range was not
aimed at raising interest rate levels.
At the meeting, the board decided in a 7-to-2 vote to make its long-term
interest rate target and asset purchases more "flexible," allowing the nearly
flat JGB yield to steepen slightly in line with firmer growth and inflation.
The statement didn't refer to the bank's new allowance for the same "around
zero" target for the long-term interest rate but Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told
reporters after the meeting that the BOJ was now allowing a wider trading range
of +0.2% to -0.2% for the 10-year JGB yield, double the previously unpublished
range of +0.1% to -0.1%.
Suzuki told reporters that the decisions at the July meeting was not aimed
at boosting banks' profits or supporting banks' intermediation role in the
financial markets, but said it was aimed at recovering the functioning of the
bond market.
--NO SPECIFIC TIMEFRAME
In its statement issued after the July meeting, the BOJ said it aimed to
make monetary easing sustainable by conducting asset purchases "in a more
flexible manner" while promising to maintain super-low interest rates "for an
extended period" to counter uncertainties including the drag from the sales tax
hike planned in October 2019.
"The expression 'for an extended period of time' in the forward guidance
does not specify any timeframes," Suzuki said.
The forward guidance adopted in July gave the impression to market
participants that the BOJ would not raise interest rates before October 2019,
when the sales tax is scheduled to be raised to 10% from the current 8%.
--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-4670-5309; email: max.sato@marketnews.com
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.