REPEAT: MNI: Renzi-Berlusconi Tie-Up An Option For Italy

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 08:10 GMT Jan 19/03:10 EST Jan 19

By Silvia Marchetti

     ROME (MNI) - A post-election alliance between former Italian prime

ministers Matteo Renzi and Silvio Berlusconi's respective Democrat and Forza

Italia parties could be the best option for a stable governing majority in

Italy, a leading political analyst has told Market News.

     "Politics is always a matter of arithmetic. An alliance between Renzi and

Berlusconi is not just mere speculation nor fantasy politics, but a likely

option," said Giovanni Orsina, director of the School of Government at the

Rome-based LUISS University

     Renzi and Berlusconi could team up in an Italian-style left/right Grand

Coalition if the vote in March delivers an uncertain outcome and no party wins

the needed 40% vote share required to govern outright.

     All will depend on the performance of the separate parties. Berlusconi may

be able to govern with centre-right allies. But if not, he could be open to an

agreement with Renzi. The centre-right coalition is expected to do well on March

4 and the more votes it secures, argued Orsina, the lesser the chance of an

alliance with the Democrats. 

     According to recent polls, Forza Italia should get 15-16% of votes, the

Democrats around 25%. Adding these up, a Renzi-Berlusconi team would have a

total of around 40% and near the mark for forming a Cabinet. 

     --NO CONRFMED TALKS

     Both the Democrats and Forza Italia are currently in full campaign mode and

deny any potential agreement, fearing the loss of votes. 

     But no-one has openly rejected the possibility of joining forces.

Traditional divisions have moved on and they are now united in fighting one

single enemy: the anti-establishment 5 Star Movement, that could win up to 35%

of votes nationwide. 

     "The greatest danger for Italy's economy and democracy are the 5 Star. They

have no idea of what democratic representation is, they preach a direct form of

democracy which translates into tyranny," said Democrat deputy Giampaolo Galli,

a member of the Lower House budget committee.

     "I have fought Berlusconi in the past, he was one of the triggers of the

2011 crisis when Italy neared a sovereign default. But the 5 Star are the real

threat today," he said. 

     Galli argued that the movement's promise to grant millions of Italians an

exaggerated 'citizenship wage' would be a disaster for public finances. "Nobody

would seek a job and illegal work would be encouraged," he said. 

     Catia Polidori, a Forza Italia deputy, shared the concern. "The 5 Star

movement do not just stand as a political threat, they could push Italy back

into recession and isolation on the world stage," she said. 

     Despite being Forza Italia's political opponents, the Democrats at least

have demonstrated across decades an ability to govern a nation, argued Polidori.

     "We both have a strong, defined political culture and past. The fact that

the Democrats are losing consensus, though it might sound paradoxical, is not a

good sign for us," she said.

     Berlusconi himself recently expressed concern over the Democrats' falling

popularity and the damage a 5 Star-led government could bring to Italy. In his

view, the stronger the Democrats are, the less votes 5 Star win.

     --NO FIXED ABODE 

     Orsina argued that even if Berlusconi has officially formed a centre-right

coalition that wants no meddling with Renzi, he is free to withdraw support and

shift sides after the vote. 

     "Berlusconi's a master in keeping a foot in both camps, ready to leap when

the right moment comes," he said. 

     The sooner parties team-up after the vote to build a majority, the quicker

the exit from the post-electoral impasse.

     It is unlikely that the election will deliver a government straight away,

but one thing appears certain: no party will have an absolute majority in

parliament.

     "We'll face a political stalemate similar to the one occurred in Germany in

the elections' aftermath," warned Galli. 

     Orsina noted that Renzi and Berlusconi are both realists who have already

teamed-up in underground talks over voting system. Berlusconi also indirectly

supported Renzi's rise to power in 2014. 

     "Berlusconi wants a strong Democrat party, strong enough to act as a shield

and drain votes from the 5 Star Movement," said Orsina. 

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com