REPEAT: POV: RBA Seen On Hold In Placeholder....>

RBA: REPEAT: POV: RBA Seen On Hold In Placeholder Meeting

- The RBA will almost certainly leave its cash rate on hold at 1.50% on Tuesday.

The Bank is unlikely to be swayed by domestic political uncertainty and the risk

of wider mortgage rate rises, instead focusing on econ. data, including a dip in

the unemp. rate, in effect maintaining its glass half full approach.

- Chances are that the Bank will reiterate that the next move in the cash rate

will likely be up in both the minutes from the meeting & a speech from RBA Gov.

Lowe, due later Tuesday. Last month's SoMP gave the RBA the chance to update its

econ. forecasts, with no large deviations from the prior outlook apparent. The

Bank is likely to state that recent data have been consistent with the central

forecast for GDP to be a touch above 3% in '18 & '19.

- Hawkish Risk: Very limited space for any overtly hawkish rhetoric.

- Central Scenario: A placeholder statement with a focus on the matters outlined

above.

- Dovish Risk: Focus on Westpac's higher mortgage rates, the effect of political

uncertainty on Biz confidence or heightened awareness of trade war risks.