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RBA: REPEAT: POV: RBA To Maintain Glass Half-Full View
All of those surveyed exp. the RBA to leave its cash rate unch. at 1.50%, focus
will quickly shift to the accompanying statement. The RBA should maintain its
glass half full approach, with stronger than exp. Q2 GDP & a tighter labour mkt
providing some scope for a more upbeat assessment of the econ situation, if it
deems apt, however, external matters, coupled with some domestic issues continue
to cloud the outlook. The mins of the meeting should repeat that the RBA
believes that the next move in its cash rate will more likely be up than down.
- Central View: RBA retains its msg that it exp. further progress in reducing
unemployment & returning inflation to tgt & that keeping MonPol unch. would be
consistent with mandate.
- Hawkish risk: Heavier weight placed on Q2 GDP & latest labour mkt report
allowing a more upbeat economic assessment.
- Dovish Risk: Increased coverage/worry re: the out of cycle mortgage rate hikes
from 3 of the 4 big banks, (only Westpac had hiked rates ahead of the previous
RBA decision), unlikely, or a greater focus on the U.S.-China trade war front.