REPEAT: POV: RBA To Maintain Glass Half-Full....>

RBA: REPEAT: POV: RBA To Maintain Glass Half-Full View

All of those surveyed exp. the RBA to leave its cash rate unch. at 1.50%, focus

will quickly shift to the accompanying statement. The RBA should maintain its

glass half full approach, with stronger than exp. Q2 GDP & a tighter labour mkt

providing some scope for a more upbeat assessment of the econ situation, if it

deems apt, however, external matters, coupled with some domestic issues continue

to cloud the outlook. The mins of the meeting should repeat that the RBA

believes that the next move in its cash rate will more likely be up than down.

- Central View: RBA retains its msg that it exp. further progress in reducing

unemployment & returning inflation to tgt & that keeping MonPol unch. would be

consistent with mandate.

- Hawkish risk: Heavier weight placed on Q2 GDP & latest labour mkt report

allowing a more upbeat economic assessment.

- Dovish Risk: Increased coverage/worry re: the out of cycle mortgage rate hikes

from 3 of the 4 big banks, (only Westpac had hiked rates ahead of the previous

RBA decision), unlikely, or a greater focus on the U.S.-China trade war front.