REPEAT:US Credit Mkt Week Ahead:Midweek Housing, Durables, GDP

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 22:40 GMT Oct 21/18:40 EST Oct 21

     CHICAGO (MNI) - Highlights in the week ahead includes Wednesday's New Home

Sales, Durable Goods on Thursday and finish off with GDP on Friday.

     While there are multiple Fed speakers are scheduled Tuesday through Friday,

focus will more likely be on central bank meetings with the Bank of Canada on

Wednesday and ECB on Thursday.

     Note and bond auctions in the week ahead, the US Treasury auctions kick off

with $45B 13wk and $39B 26wk bills Monday at 1130ET followed by 4- and 8wk

auction details for the October 23 auctions. For notes, $38B 2Y note auction

occurs Tuesday, $19B 2Y note FRN and $39B 5Y notes on Wednesday, final leg on

Thursday with $31B 7Y notes.

Data and Speaker highlights (estimates):

     - Monday: Very quiet start to the week, no data or speaker events but the

US Treasury will auction $45B 13wk and $39B 26wk bills, as well as announce the

details for Tuesday's 4- and 8wk auctions.

     - Tuesday: Light data with Oct Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index,

Redbook retail sales m/m, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index and the $38B 2Y note

auction.

     Multiple Fed speakers will address US economic outlook and monetary policy

through the day include MN Fed President Kashkari, Atlanta Fed President Bostic,

Dallas Fed President Kaplan and Chicago Fed President Evans.

     - Wednesday: midweek data releases pick up in earnest and include Markit

Services and Manufacturing Index data, FHFA Home Price Index, new home sales and

building permit data for September. Fed speakers include Atlanta Fed President

Bostic, St Louis Fed President Bullard. US Treasury will auction $19B 2Y FRN and

$39B 5Y notes.

     Morgan Stanley economists anticipate the September new home sales to come

out "sales mostly flat" ... "rising just 0.2% to an annual pace of 630,000

units." 

     MS cited "key housing variables...have been somewhat positive in September,

with both the home buying conditions index in the University of Michigan survey

and the Mortgage Bankers Association's loan application volume index rising

after a series of declines."

     MS adds they "expect higher mortgage rates to continue weighing on sales

throughout the end of the year."

     RBS NatWest economists estimate the September sales figure to have

retreated "from to a seasonally adjusted annualized level of 629,000 units in

August to 595,000 units."

     While "new home sales have averaged 639,000 annualized units, up about 4.5%

from last year's average" RBS said, momentum has slowed as "as affordability has

declined. "As of mid-October, 30-year fixed mortgage rates were up roughly 30

bps since the end of August (and about 90bps since the end of 2017)."

     - Thursday: Jobless claims (215k), durable goods new orders and advance

wholesale and retail inventories. Fed speakers are absent Thursday while the US

Treasury will auction $31B 7Y notes.

     Barclays economists "look for the advance goods trade deficit to widen from

a revised $75.5bn in August to $77.3bn in September" and a "nominal exports to

rise by 1.1% on the month, while nonpetroleum exports are expected to rise by a

more modest 0.7% m/m."

     On Durables Goods, Morgan Stanley economists "look for a strong 0.5% gain

in durable goods orders excluding transportation in September, improving after a

disappointing flat reading in August," driven by a "notable 0.7% rise in durable

goods manufacturing output in September's industrial production report."

     - Friday: highlight of the week is Q3 GDP (adv) (3.3%).

     RBS NatWest economists "anticipate that growth increased at a 3.2%

annualized rate in the third quarter following a 4.2% rise in the second

quarter. Given that our point estimate for Q3 growth is strong, the

year-over-year growth should tick up to 3.0% (strongest pace since Q2 2015)."

     RBS adds the US economy continues to "expand solidly. While trade tensions

have escalated, we don't yet see significant negative effects in the economic

data. To the contrary, we would not rule out the possibility that the threat of

tariffs in early 2019 leads to some pull-forward of activity into 2018, though

the net effect of such action are unclear."

     Barclays Capital economists have raised their "outlook for Q3 GDP growth to

3.5%, from 3.0% previously, on account of strength in inventories."

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

- Oct 22 No data or speaker events scheduled for Monday

- Oct 22 US Tsy auction $45B 13wk bills 1130ET

- Oct 22 US Tsy auction $39B 26wk bills 1130ET

- Oct 22 US Tsy announces 4- and 8wk details for Oct 23 auction

- Oct 23 Oct Philadelphia Fed Nonmfg Index (37.4, --) 0830ET

- Oct 23 20-Oct Redbook retail sales m/m (0.1%, --) 0855ET

- Oct 23 MN Fed Pres Kashkari, Innovtn Early Childhd Devel Conf, MN, 0930ET

- Oct 23 Oct Richmond Fed Mfg Index (29, --) 1000ET

- Oct 23 US Tsy $38B 2Y note auction (9128285G1) 1300ET

- Oct 23 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, Eco Outlook, MonPol, LSU, Baton Rouge, Q&A. 1330ET

- Oct 23 Dal Fed Pres Kaplan, 7th Ann Eco Dev' Summit, Galveston, Tx, Q&A.

1415ET

- Oct 23 Chi Fed Pres Evans, Eco Outlook, MonPol, Northwestern, IL, Q&A. 1815ET

- Oct 24 19-Oct MBA Mortgage Applications (-7.1%, --) 0700ET

- Oct 24 Aug FHFA Home Price Index (0.2%, --) 0900ET

- Oct 24 Oct Markit Services Index (flash) (53.5, --) 0945ET

- Oct 24 Oct Markit Mfg Index (flash) (55.6, --) 0945ET

- Oct 24 Sep new home sales (629k, 626k) 1000ET

- Oct 24 Sep bldg permits revision 1000ET

- Oct 24 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, armchair disc, LSU Energy Summit, LA, Q&A 1000ET

- Oct 24 19-Oct crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (6.49m bbl, --) 1030ET

- Oct 24 US Tsy $19B 2Y FRN note auction (9128285H9) 1130ET

- Oct 24 StL Fed Pres Bullard on US Eco/MonPol, Edinburgh, Q&A. 1130ET

- Oct 24 US Tsy $39B 5Y note auction (9128285K2) 1300ET

- Oct 24 Fed Beige Book for upcoming FOMC, 1400ET

- Oct 24 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, armchair disc, LSU Energy Summit, LA, Q&A 1400ET

- Oct 25 20-Oct jobless claims (210k, 215k) 0830ET

- Oct 25 Sep durable goods new orders (4.5%, 2.5%) 0830ET

- Oct 25 Sep durable new orders ex transport (0.1%, 0.2%) 0830ET

- Oct 25 Sep advance goods trade gap 0830ET

- Oct 25 Sep advance wholesale inventories 0830ET

- Oct 25 Sep advance retail inventories 0830ET

- Oct 25 21-Oct Bloomberg comfort index 0945ET

- Oct 25 Sep NAR pending home sales index (104.2, --) 1000ET

- Oct 25 19-Oct natural gas stocks w/w 1030ET

- Oct 25 Oct Kansas City Fed Mfg Index (13, --) 1100ET

- Oct 25 US Tsy $31B 7Y note auction (9128285J5) 1300ET

- Oct 25 24-Oct Fed weekly securities holdings

- Oct 25 US Tsy announces 13- and 23wk details for Oct 29 auction

- Oct 26 NY Fed Exec VP Potter, "Financial Crisis MonPol" Conf on Exiting

Unconventional Monetary Policies, Paris, France. 0535ET

- Oct 26 Q3 GDP (adv) (4.2%, 3.3%) 0830ET

- Oct 26 Q3 GDP Price Index (3.0%, 1.7%) 0830ET

- Oct 26 Oct Michigan sentiment index (f) (--, 99.0) 1000ET

- Oct 26 Q4 NY Fed GDP Nowcast 1115ET

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]