Free Trial

Resilient Initial Claims Although Seasonal Adjustment Perhaps Still Favorable

US DATA
  • Along with the surprise implied re-acceleration in core PCE inflation, initial jobless claims also came in on the stronger (i.e. lower) side at 230k (cons 248k) in the week to Apr 22 after 246k.
  • It continues a relatively noisy recent run. Instead, the four-week average dipped from 240k to 236k for the lowest in six weeks after its newfound upward trend through Feb/Mar post revised seasonal factors.
  • However, at 226k in non-seasonally adjusted terms, there still appears to be a mild favorable adjustment seeing as claims are at the top end of pre-pandemic ‘normal’ weeks – see second chart - although at least aren't seeing a discernible move higher.
  • Continuing claims meanwhile broadly consolidated last week’s surprise increase rather than pushing on further, dipping to 1858k (cons 1870k) from slightly downward revised 1861k.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.