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Restaurants and hotels drive the upside surprise at first glance

UK DATA
  • The biggest upward contribution seems to be from restaurants and hotels at first glance. We had flagged there could be some upside from this category - both due to Easter and due to a smaller contribution in February than had been expected. This is a volatile category and could be reversed next month.
  • Air fares doesn't appear to be driving the upside surprise.
  • Still looking through the details for other impacts, but combined with yesterday's higher private sector wage growth data, this supports the view that the BOE won't be in a particular rush to cut rates in May with June/August still looking most likely for a first cut in our view.
  • GBPUSD spiked 25 pips higher on the release and is now around 20 pips higher at 1.2440 at writing (which is still similar to its overnight highs).
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