April 17, 2024 06:10 GMT
Restaurants and hotels drive the upside surprise at first glance
UK DATA
- The biggest upward contribution seems to be from restaurants and hotels at first glance. We had flagged there could be some upside from this category - both due to Easter and due to a smaller contribution in February than had been expected. This is a volatile category and could be reversed next month.
- Air fares doesn't appear to be driving the upside surprise.
- Still looking through the details for other impacts, but combined with yesterday's higher private sector wage growth data, this supports the view that the BOE won't be in a particular rush to cut rates in May with June/August still looking most likely for a first cut in our view.
- GBPUSD spiked 25 pips higher on the release and is now around 20 pips higher at 1.2440 at writing (which is still similar to its overnight highs).
136 words