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Retail sales and public finance data due at 7:00BST

UK DATA
  • UK retail sales and public finance data are both due for release at 7:00BST (both are May data).
  • Consensus expects a M/M rebound from April's particularly weak prints, with both ex/inc fuel expected at +1.8%M/M (from -2.0%M/M and -2.3%M/M respectively in April). For the ex-fuel print 9/10 of the analysts in the Bloomberg survey look fora negative print, although there is a high dispersion with a standard deviation of 1.05%.
  • April's print was adversely impacted by the weather. However, there was continued poor weather in May with above average rainfall and below average sunshine.
  • This would still leave the Y/Y prints for both in negative territory.
  • Public finance data is not really market moving recently, and came in GBP1.2bln higher than the OBR's forecast last month driven by departmental expenditure on goods and services and spending on net social benefits coming in above forecast, and central government receipts coming in below forecast. The OBR's May forecast was for PSNBex at GBP15.7bln (the Bloomberg consensus looks for GBP15.5bln).
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