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Retail sales and public finance data due at 7:00GMT


Both UK retail sales and public finance data are due for release at 7:00GMT. Public finance data is unlikely to move markets while retail sales will give the best indication of the state of the consumer in October. Even so, unless we get a big beat for retail sales, we are unlikely to have too much of a market move off today's data.

Our data team notes:

  • UK retail sales rose by 0.5% in October, according to the Bloomberg consensus, which would break a five-month losing streak, the longest since the series began in 1996.
  • But weakness over the spring and summer provide for easy monthly comparatives, raising the possibility of a significant statistical rebound in October.
  • Sales have fallen by 5.2% after touching a multi-year peak in April.
  • Food sales rose modestly, largely boosted by festivals, with consumers stocking up on Halloween treats and forward-looking shoppers beginning to think about Christmas.
  • However, higher prices may have kept sales volumes in check.

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