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Retail sales and public finance data due on the hour

UK DATA
  • The volatile UK retail sales print will be released on the hour. Both the headline and ex-fuel measures have surprised to the upside in every 2023 release so far (with the exception being the March data). The Bloomberg consensus looks for both to come in at +0.2%M/M in June, partly fueled by the extra bank holiday for the coronation.
  • Public finance data for June will also be released simultaneously. Data across the first two months of the fiscal year have both shown more borrowing than expected, with the OBR noting both lower receipts and higher accrued spending.
  • We don't think that either release will be particularly at the forefront of the MPC's discussions at the August meeting, and so only look for muted market reactions.
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