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Retail Sales At All-Time High, and Consumer Confidence At 10Y Low

US
  • Economic data showed that retail sales were strong in October despite rising inflation, surging to a new all-time high of 566bn USD, and therefore confirming that household demand remains resilient.
  • On the other hand, consumer confidence has remained at depressed levels despite the sharp recovery in equities.
  • Michigan consumer sentiment fell to a 10-year low in November (below Covid levels) amid elevated uncertainty over the economic outlook and inflation.
  • The chart below shows the strong divergence between the two times series since the start of the pandemic.
  • Will the Fed be able to hike rates if consumption growth starts to fade in 2022?

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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