Retail Sales Come In Stronger Than Expected

Poland's retail sales topped expectations in January, which came after the release of disappointing industrial production and construction output earlier this week. Household consumption is expected to recover this year, helping propel broader economic recovery.

• ING note that above-forecast wage growth resulted in better-then-expected retail sales. They are "waiting for clearer symptoms of a recovery in demand for durable goods" but maintain their assessment that GDP growth this year will be driven by consumption.
• According to mBank, the latest print was not shockingly good, but retail sales extend their recovery trend, with increases distributed evenly across various categories. This is consistent with positive data on consumer sentiment and real wages. They write that the data partly counters the disappointment provided by industrial output and construction output, with the economic trough being already behind. They do not consider the data to be very significant for the MPC.
  
• Pekao write that the January outturn was solid, but things should be put in context. In their view, the strong January should be interpreted together with a weak December. It one looks at these two results together, then "there is no boom."
• The Polish Economic Institute expect a recovery in consumption this year, primarily on the back of rising real wages. On the other hand, they point to survey data suggesting that households are increasingly looking to rebuild savings, which will slow the rebound in consumption and retail sales.