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Retail sales data at 7:00GMT

UK DATA
MNI (London)
  • UK retail sales growth is anticipated to have softened in the February print, slowing to +0.7% m/m from +1.9% m/m. Compared to Feb 2021, a 1.3pp slower growth of +7.8% y/y is expected. The slowdown excluding fuel is projected to be more pronounced, with analysts looking for a 1.6pp softening to +5.6% y/y.
  • The current inflationary squeeze on consumer disposable income is likely the key downwards driving force on today’s retail, which, due to survey timing, will omit effects of the Ukraine war.
  • Currency market reaction likely to be muted, possibly some movement when STIR futures open if there is a large surprise. However, bear in mind this is a relatively volatile print.

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