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Retail sales data due at 7:00GMT

UK DATA
MNI (London)
  • Retail sales likely declined by 0.6%M/M in December, according to the Bloomberg consensus, with consumers opting to stay at home as the Omicron Covid variant spread through the country. The expected December slump comes after a higher-then-expected 1.4% increase in November suggested that shoppers took advantage of Black Friday promotions staged through late November.
  • Many retailers started Black Friday discounting ahead of the big day on 26 November, potentially shifting December sales into the penultimate month of the year. Cyber Monday, which fell on 29 November, will be included with the December data, but industry leaders make little mention of the event when discussing December activity.
  • We don't expect any real kneejerk sterling reaction to the data. We note that this morning's consumer confidence data was poor, so a poor print here too could set a negative tone for the rest of the day, particularly when SONIA futures open. A positive print, in contrast, would balance sentiment somewhat.
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