Retail Sales (Dec 2019) Preview - 0930GMT...>

UK DATA: Retail Sales (Dec 2019) Preview - 0930GMT 17/01/20

--------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

- BBG: 0.6%m/m; 2.7%y/y; Prev (Nov): -0.6%m/m, 1.0%y/y 

- Ex. Fuel: BBG: 0.8% m/m, 3.0% y/y; Prev (Nov): -0.6% m/m, 0.8% y/y 

- Mkts looking for retail sales to rise 0.6% in Dec to a six-month high. Sales

excluding fuel are seen up 0.8% 

- Retail sales incl. as well as excl. fuel fell by 0.6% in Nov, the lowest

readings since Dec 2018. 

- Nov's m/m drop was led by a sharp drop in non-store retailing

- Annual sales are expected to accelerate to 2.7%, while yearly sales excl. fuel

are seen up 3.0% in Dec 

- Fwd-looking surveys suggest downside risks in Dec with VISA spending index

posting a m/m fall in Dec, while the BRC shop sales monitor reported an increase

of 1.9% in total sales. 

- However, the BRC report notes that adjusted for Black Friday distortions,

total sales are more likely to have fallen.