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Retail sales due at 7:00BST

UK DATA
  • The UK's busy week continues this morning with retail sales for June due at 7:00BST.
  • Retail sales ex-fuel data has only seen one positive M/M print since October 2021’s print and this trend is expected to continue with the June print with consensus looking for a -0.4%M/M print (including fuel -0.2%M/M).
  • This would equate to a further slowdown in the Y/Y rate with consensus looking for ex fuel at -6.2%Y/Y (from -5.7%Y/Y in May) and the inc fuel print at -5.3%Y/Y (from -4.7%Y/Y in May).
  • The slump in retail sales is reflecting a number of factors including a fall in consumer confidence due to inflation and growth fears and also due to some goods purchases being pulled forward during lockdowns.
  • The data will follow the GfK consumer confidence data released overnight which remained steady at its record low level of -41. And will precede the flash PMI data due later this morning.
  • Sterling is only likely to see a notable reaction to a big surprise in the data, and in line with other recent UK data releases may see a second move around 7:30BST when SONIA futures markets open. After yesterday's 50bp hike from the ECB, markets are pricing 49bp for the August MPC meeting.
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