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Retail sales due at 7:00BST
- The UK's busy week continues this morning with retail sales for June due at 7:00BST.
- Retail sales ex-fuel data has only seen one positive M/M print since October 2021’s print and this trend is expected to continue with the June print with consensus looking for a -0.4%M/M print (including fuel -0.2%M/M).
- This would equate to a further slowdown in the Y/Y rate with consensus looking for ex fuel at -6.2%Y/Y (from -5.7%Y/Y in May) and the inc fuel print at -5.3%Y/Y (from -4.7%Y/Y in May).
- The slump in retail sales is reflecting a number of factors including a fall in consumer confidence due to inflation and growth fears and also due to some goods purchases being pulled forward during lockdowns.
- The data will follow the GfK consumer confidence data released overnight which remained steady at its record low level of -41. And will precede the flash PMI data due later this morning.
- Sterling is only likely to see a notable reaction to a big surprise in the data, and in line with other recent UK data releases may see a second move around 7:30BST when SONIA futures markets open. After yesterday's 50bp hike from the ECB, markets are pricing 49bp for the August MPC meeting.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.