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Retail sales due at 7:00GMT

UK DATA
  • UK retail sales are expected to see a bit of a bounce in M/M terms in October (partially reversing the fall in September). The Bloomberg consensus looks for the ex-fuel number to rise +0.5%M/M in October after -1.0%M/M in September.
  • On a Y/Y basis, the ex-fuel series has shown negative Y/Y growth since April 2022. Part of this was due to the rotation out of goods and back to services as the economy recovered from the pandemic (and retail sales are over 10% lower in volume terms than the peak seen in Spring 2021).
  • However, it appears as though most of that rotation is now largely complete and so weak prints now are more a signal of weak consumer demand.
  • The Bloomberg consensus looks for -1.5%Y/Y on the ex-fuel measure (from -1.2%Y/Y in September).
  • The retail sales series is very volatile so generally a rather larger surprise is needed to move markets.
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