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Retail Sales Forecast To Rise Moderately


July retail sales print today and are forecast to rise 0.2% m/m which would result in an annual rate of 1.8% y/y. They fell 0.8% m/m in June to be up 2.3% y/y. Estimates are between -0.3% m/m and +0.6% with most between +0.1% and +0.4%. NAB expects +0.1%, ANZ +0.3% and CBA & Westpac both have +0.4%.

  • CBA released its revamped household spending series this month, Household Spending Insights (HSI), which includes seasonal adjustment and covers around 30% of Australia’s card transactions. See MNI CBA Spending Insights Shows Continued Soft Consumption for more details.
  • This new transaction-based data is closely correlated with the ABS’ retail sales. The annual rates have a 90% correlation and the monthly ones 92%. In July the CBA HSI was flat on the month to be up 1.3% y/y. A flat reading for July retail sales would result in annual growth easing further to 1.6%.

Australia retail sales vs CBA household spending y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS/Bloomberg

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