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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUSTRALIA DATA
July retail sales print today and are forecast to rise 0.2% m/m which would result in an annual rate of 1.8% y/y. They fell 0.8% m/m in June to be up 2.3% y/y. Estimates are between -0.3% m/m and +0.6% with most between +0.1% and +0.4%. NAB expects +0.1%, ANZ +0.3% and CBA & Westpac both have +0.4%.
- CBA released its revamped household spending series this month, Household Spending Insights (HSI), which includes seasonal adjustment and covers around 30% of Australia’s card transactions. See MNI CBA Spending Insights Shows Continued Soft Consumption for more details.
- This new transaction-based data is closely correlated with the ABS’ retail sales. The annual rates have a 90% correlation and the monthly ones 92%. In July the CBA HSI was flat on the month to be up 1.3% y/y. A flat reading for July retail sales would result in annual growth easing further to 1.6%.
Australia retail sales vs CBA household spending y/y%
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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