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Retail Sales Headline A Thin North American Docket – 0830ET

CANADA
  • Retail sales are seen falling a nominal -0.4% M/M in January as per last month’s advance, after a strong 0.9% in Dec.
  • RBC: “Gasoline prices were lower in January, but the volume is also expected to have dropped by 0.3% due to lower auto sales.”
  • Consensus also sees ex-auto sales falling -0.4% M/M, although CIBC look for a heavier -0.6% M/M. Auto sales meanwhile “should have been helped by supply chain normalization”.
  • The February advance will be eyed with next week’s monthly GDP release for Jan/Feb advance in mind. Barring the Q1 BOS, GDP will be the last notable growth-focused release until the Apr 10 BoC decision in what’s a particularly short five-week window between meetings.
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