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Retail Sales In Focus As Inflation Fears Ebb

US TSYS SUMMARY

Treasuries strengthened overnight with breakeven inflation subsiding, as post-CPI data fears appear to be ebbing somewhat.

  • Jun 10-Yr futures (TY) up 8/32 at 132-14 (L: 132-06 / H: 132-15.5) and have nearly fully reversed the post-CPI drop. Volumes slightly elevated (front 345k). The 2-Yr yield is down 0.2bps at 0.151%, 5-Yr is down 2.1bps at 0.8064%, 10-Yr is down 2.2bps at 1.6352%, and 30-Yr is down 3.7bps at 2.3582%.
  • Apr retail sales (0830ET) provide the next data signpost in the pandemic reopening: headline seen +1.0% M/M (+9.8% prior), with ex-auto/gas +0.3% (+8.2% prior) and control group -0.4% (+6.9% prior).
  • In variations on the same theme: some attention on industrial production (0915ET) esp for signs of supply chain disruptions, and prelim May UMichigan sentiment at 1000ET bears watching in part for inflation expectations.
  • The only scheduled Fed speaker is Dallas Pres Kaplan (1300ET).
  • Treas Sec Yellen speaks at a Vatican conference ("Dreaming Of A Better Restart") at 1450 local time, so 0850ET/1350UK.
  • No supply; NY Fed buys ~$12.4B of 0- 2.25Y Tsys. Note yesterday, as we'd flagged, the NY Fed shifted bond purchases to the 7-30Y Tsy range by 3% and away from TIPS "modestly".
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