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Retail Sales Miss But Market Looks Ahead Of RBA Bullock’s Panel Appearance

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +7.0 & XM +8.0) are richer, but little changed after October retail sales missed forecasts (-0.2% m/m versus +0.1% est. and +0.9% prior). ABS said “It looks like consumers hit the pause button on some discretionary spending in October, likely waiting to take advantage of discounts during Black Friday sales events in November. This is a pattern we have seen develop in recent years as Black Friday sales grow in popularity.”

  • A slight cheapening in US tsys during today’s Asia-Pac session may also be weighing on the local market and limiting any positive response to the data.
  • RBA Governor Bullock participates in a panel at the HKMA-BIS conference at 1218 AEDT today (the event can be watched here).
  • Cash ACGBs are 8bps richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 3bps wider at +9bps.
  • Swap rates are 8-9bps lower, with EFPs little changed.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing flat to +10.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 7bps softer on the day across meetings, with Feb’25 leading.
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