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Retail Sales Miss Forecasts, Construction Output Tops Expectations

POLAND
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Statistics Poland released April retail sales and construction output data, which fell either side of projections. Retail sales disappointed, casting doubt on heightened expectations surrounding the recovery in private consumption, which this impression magnified by yesterday's below-forecast wage data. On the other hand, construction output shrank less than expected.

  • ING note that an earlier Easter this year boosted retail sales in March but weighed on the April outturn, while potential hoarding ahead of the VAT hike may have also played a role. They expect a continued recovery in consumption in May, aided by robust wage growth, calendar, and weather. Construction output was boosted by calendar conditions in April, in their view.
  • mBank describe the data as "ambiguous," simply flagging two-way surprises.
  • The Polish Economic Institute write that consumption is powered by fast wage growth. Construction output was relatively weak and may remain so, due to higher interest rates and a cyclical pause in investments financed with EU aid.

Table 1. Poland April Retail Sales & Construction Output

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Statistics Poland released April retail sales and construction output data, which fell either side of projections. Retail sales disappointed, casting doubt on heightened expectations surrounding the recovery in private consumption, which this impression magnified by yesterday's below-forecast wage data. On the other hand, construction output shrank less than expected.

  • ING note that an earlier Easter this year boosted retail sales in March but weighed on the April outturn, while potential hoarding ahead of the VAT hike may have also played a role. They expect a continued recovery in consumption in May, aided by robust wage growth, calendar, and weather. Construction output was boosted by calendar conditions in April, in their view.
  • mBank describe the data as "ambiguous," simply flagging two-way surprises.
  • The Polish Economic Institute write that consumption is powered by fast wage growth. Construction output was relatively weak and may remain so, due to higher interest rates and a cyclical pause in investments financed with EU aid.

Table 1. Poland April Retail Sales & Construction Output

Keep reading...Show less