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Retail Sales Miss Has Limited Mkt Impact

DATA REACT

A very poor Nov retail sales report (see 0838ET write-up from our Data team) will lead to downgrades of Q4 GDP estimates (the control group number falling to -0.5% M/M vs expectations for a gain) and cast additional doubt on the near-term growth outlook.

  • That said, Treasuries' conviction has been largely unswayed by the numbers, with Tsys barely bouncing considering the magnitude of the data miss, and bear steepening continuing. Fiscal deal and FOMC seen more important at this stage.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 1.2bps at 0.125%, 5-Yr is up 2.2bps at 0.3862%, 10-Yr is up 3.2bps at 0.9395%, and 30-Yr is up 4.2bps at 1.6918%.. Mar 10-Yr futures (TY) down 5/32 at 137-22.5 (L: 137-21 / H: 138-00.5)
  • Not much move in the USD either, more attention on simultaneously released 0830ET headlines on Treasury declaring Switzerland and Vietnam FX manipulators.
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