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Retail Sales Remain Subdued, But Point To Gradual Recovery In Goods Consumption

NORWAY

Norwegian retail sales for December fell -0.9% M/M (vs +0.4% prior). The consensus of +0.2% M/M was formed from just 3 analysts. Excluding motor vehicles and petrol stations, sales fell -2.7% M/M (vs +2.1% prior).

  • The monthly measures can be volatile, so better inferences can be drawn from the 3m/3m measure. The headline reading grew +0.3% 3m/3m (vs -0.6% prior), while the ex-motor vehicles measure grew +0.6% 3m/3m (vs -0.5% prior).
  • While still subdued, the recent trend of retail sales suggests a continuation of the steady recovery in goods consumption in Q4 '23 (Q4 GDP data is released on Feb 14).
  • This aligns with the Norges Bank's commentary in yesterday's Monetary Policy Assessment, where they noted "household consumption appears to have been somewhat higher than projected towards the end of last year".
  • On both a 3m/3m and M/M basis, retail sales of IT equipment saw the largest declines in December, falling -5.6% 3m/3m and -10.4% M/M.

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