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Retail Sales Rises By 5.7% In October

HUNGARY
  • Yesterday, the NBH decided to raise its 1W deposit rate by another 20bps to 3.1% following its decision to increase the corridor ceiling to 4.1%.
  • One of the main reasons why NBH keeps rising its 1W deposit rate is to strengthen the forint, which has been very weak against major crosses in November amid rising uncertainty over the economic outlook.
  • The 1W deposit rate is now standing 100bps above the policy rate, and may be done for now with its ‘weekly’ decisions.
  • However, the NBH is still expecting to continue its tightening cycle in its monthly meeting and is likely to hike its benchmark rate by 30bps on Dec 14 as HUF has recently stabilized.
  • Interestingly, the forint weakened yesterday against major crosses despite NBH hiking rate, showing the limits of the weekly meetings.
  • This morning, economic data showed that retail sales rose more than expected in October by 5.7% (vs. 4.7% exp.), down from 5.8% the previous month.
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