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Retail Sales See Softer Recent Trend, Especially Underlying Measures

US DATA
  • The annual revisions to total retail sales haven’t wildly changed the monthly profile, with two weaker months in Feb/Mar (-0.7/-0.6% M/M) after a still very strong March (+2.8% M/M), although they have taken some of the pace off the recent trend with a three-month rate of 5.7% annualized vs 7.7% prior.
  • At the margin, the latest two months have seen a stabilization in the rate of decline at those -0.6/-0.7% readings vs the previously seen -0.2% in Feb and -1.0% in Mar, and in real terms was likely an improvement compared to Feb considering the decline in goods prices.
  • Underlying measures have seen more outright negative revisions in recent months though. Ex autos and gas sales were unrevised at -0.3% M/M in Mar but are now -0.5% in Feb (prior 0.0%) and +2.2% in Jan (prior 2.8%). It leaves a three-month nominal growth rate at 5.6% annualized from the previously seen 10% annualized.

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