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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessRetail Sales Supports SONIA Futures, Aids Dovish BoE Repricing
SONIA futures are flat to 5bp firmer through the blues, with the back end of the reds and front end of the greens leading the move. Contracts are just off early session bests in the main.
- The soft domestic retail sales data flagged earlier provides the early London impetus, and comes in the wake of the latest round of UK & U.S. CPI, as well as the latest domestic private sector ex-bonus wage measure.
- The data does enough to allow the June BoE-dated OIS contract to more than fully discount a 25bp cut, while the BoE-dated OIS strip prices a little over 80bp of cumulative cuts through calendar ’24 as a result. ’24 pricing on the whole has moved through previous week-to-date dovish extremes.
- BoE hawk Mann highlighted that low productivity limits the potential for UK growth after the close on Thursday, but she didn’t provide much more in the way of meaningful commentary.
- BoE’s Greene & Ramsden will appear again today after both spoke yesterday.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Dec-23 | 5.210 | +2.3 |
Feb-24 | 5.211 | +2.4 |
Mar-24 | 5.150 | -3.7 |
May-24 | 5.040 | -14.6 |
Jun-24 | 4.928 | -25.9 |
Aug-24 | 4.784 | -40.3 |
Sep-24 | 4.640 | -54.7 |
Nov-24 | 4.489 | -69.8 |
Dec-24 | 4.366 | -82.1 |
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.