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Retail sales surprise to the upside again

UK DATA
  • Better print than expected for retail sales across the board. That's now 5/6 prints this year surprising to the upside.
  • Non-food stores up 1.0%M/M, boosted by furniture and department stores (summer sales and increased footfall both helping). More than reversing -0.5%M/M fall in May.
  • Food store volumes +0.7%M/M with supermarkets noting good weather and promotions helping turn around -0.5%M/M May print.
  • Non-store volumes rose +0.2%M/M after +2.4%M/M growth in May.
  • The only major category to fall was automotive fuels, down -0.3%M/M.
  • GBPUSD spiked up around 25 pips on the data to hit an intraday high of 1.2904 and we have now retraced around half of this spike at writing.
  • As we noted before, we don't think this data really changes anything materially for the MPC so don't expect a large sustained market move on the back of it. However, the move does show how sensitive the pound is even to data that's not at the forefront of the MPC's minds.
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