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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Summary take; Adobe saw slowdown post Cyber week in line with Mastercard & Salesforce; total Nov-Dec US online sales still come above fcst at 4.9% yoy; sees stronger real sales (strong deflator); easing of BNPL usage in Dec; EU Nov (real) retail sales in 30min - more timely Dec retail sales for US (nominal) & UK (real) come next week
- Adobe has reported complete holiday data (Nov 1 to Dec 31) on US e-commerce sales (yet to on UK). Though last week's Mastercard (on all payment methods) & Salesforce (online) were prelim data to Mid-Dec, Adobe has reported similar trends on headline spend to the end of the year. It saw Dec online sales in US of $98.5b (+3.7% yoy) - that is a slow down from $123.5b in Nov (+6% yoy) which was driven by strong Cyber week spend of $38b (+7.9% yoy). Adobe see the headline growth driven by "net new demand as opposed to higher prices" - their eqv. price index saw heavy deflation to Dec (-5.3%yoy) - the analyst say real figures would be higher than headline reported growth,
- Adobe said Dec. sales were driven by 'lingering' cyber week discounts - salesforce quantified this reporting avg. discount rates across US & EU that fell from 27% in Cyber week to 18% in December (1st -18th) . Adobe didn't report the split but still say Nov-Dec discount rates as a whole hit record highs, peaking at 31% (vs. 22% last year). It also saw BNPL usage hit all-time high this Nov/Dec at $16.6b up 14%yoy - though this is in-line with the run rate over the entire year ($75b, ~14%yoy) - most of the holiday usage came in Nov ($9.2b/55%).
- Expectations for Nov real EU retail sales at 10am London (5am ET) are at -0.3% MoM - print has been contractionary for 3 of the last 4 months. More timely Dec UK (real) & US (nominal) retail sales come next week. UK focused clothing retailer Next, reported strong holiday sales (beat) last week as positive indicator for UK retail - we will get more colour this week from B&M & Marks & Spencer.
- As a side note Mobile phones continue to grow in usage - they are now the main method of online shopping at 51.1% of sales vs. 47% in '22. On Christmas Day it made up 63% of online sales.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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