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Retails Sales Below Forecast, Discretionary Spending Curbed In July

AUSTRALIA DATA

July retail sales were flat in m/m terms, against a 0.3% forecast rise. The prior two months had seen back to back rises of 0.5%. The July outcome is the weakest since March's -0.4% dip. The y/y print was +2.3%, down slightly from recent highs (2.9% seen in June).

  • In terms of the details, food was the only sector that recorded a rise (up 0.2%m/m). We saw cafe spending fall -0.2%m/m, this sector's third straight monthly fall. Apparel and department store spending was negative as well. Household goods retailing was flat, after three straight monthly gains of 1.1%.
  • The detail highlights a pull back in discretionary spending in July. This fits with a still under pressure household sector.
  • It's unlikely to sway RBA thinking though, which remains intent on bringing inflation back into the target band.
  • Note next week we get a number of data releases highlighted by Q2 GDP on Wednesday. At this stage the consensus has the economy expanding +0.2%q/q, 0.9% y/y.
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